In our previous draft strategies column, we discussed various methods of going about the selection process. After the NFL scouting combine and an early pro day, it’s time to review our prospects for each strategy.
Heights and weights have been edited to show changes from pre-combine listings.
PLAY IT STRAIGHT
(Based on New England picking in their allotted slots)
FIRST ROUND: John Jenkins, Georgia DL (6-4, 359 346).
Combine Positives: 30 bench reps, 13-pound weight loss since Senior Bowl
Combine Negatives: Jenkins did not participate in timed drills at the combine
SECOND ROUND: Robert Alford, SE Louisiana CB (5-11 5-10, 188).
Combine Positives: 4.39 40-yard dash; 40-inch vertical; 11-foot broad jump
Combine Negatives: Shorter than expected; no weight gained
THIRD ROUND: Brian Schwenke, California OL (6-3, 307 314).
Combine Positives: 4.99-second 40-yard dash; 31 bench press reps
Combine Negatives: Despite criticisms of his fireplug body type, none that we can see
SEVENTH ROUND (a): Devonte Christopher, Utah WR (6-1, 192).
Christopher was not invited to the combine. Utah’s pro day is slated for March 20.
SEVENTH ROUND (b): Rashard Hall, Clemson S (6-1, 213 210).
Hall was not invited to the combine. He participated in Clemson’s pro day March 7.
Pro Day Positives:19 bench reps; 10-foot, 2-inch broad jump; 6.87-second 3-cone drill
Pro Day Negatives: 4.68-second 40
Strategy Overview: Most of these players performed beyond expectations. In most years, this would improve their status; however, because so many candidates performed well, each of the above should remain available in these slots.
It’s unlikely that Bill Belichick will stay put with the above picks, but bringing in five solid rookies seems like a pretty good idea to us.
BET THE FARM
(Based on the Pats making moves up the board)
FIRST ROUND: Sharrif Floyd, Florida DL (6-3, 303).
Combine Positives: 4.92-second 40
Combine Negatives: None from our perspective
SECOND ROUND: Jamar Taylor, Boise State CB (5-11, 192).
Combine Positives: 4.39-second 40; 22 bench press reps; 6.82 3-cone drill
Combine Negatives: a 35-inch vertical isn’t spectacular
Strategy Overview: Well, unless Floyd gets videotaped committing a felony, he looks like he’s out of reach for the Pats. If they can finagle these two picks and supplement the roster with undrafted free agents out of a deep rookie class, kudos all around.
More likely, we expect to see the below scenario unfold in late April…
HEDGE YOUR BETS
(Based on trading down to accumulate mid-round and future picks)
SECOND ROUND: Kawann Short, Purdue DT (6-3, 308 299).
Short did not work out at the combine after reportedly tweaking a hamstring. His pro day is scheduled for March 26.
FOURTH ROUND: Tavarres King, Georgia WR (6-0 6-1, 192 200).
Combine Positives: See height and weight adjustment above; 10-foot, 3-inch broad jump
Combine Negatives: 11 bench reps, a slower-than-expected 4.47-sec 40-yard dash
FOURTH ROUND: Alvin Bailey, Arkansas OL (6-5 6-3, 315 312).
Combine Positives: 4.95-second 40; 27 bench press reps
Combine Negatives: See height discrepancy
FIFTH ROUND: David Bass, Missouri Western DE (6-4, 262).
Combine Positives: Size, quickness (7.07 seconds in the 3-cone drill)
Combine Negatives: 4.84 in the 40; 9-foot, 3-inch broad jump
SEVENTH ROUND: Tommy Bohanon, Wake Forest FB/TE (6-1, 245).
Combine Positives: 36 bench press reps; 10-inch hands (catcher’s mitts); 35-inch vertical
Combine Negatives: 4.88-second 40; 7.27-second 3-cone
Strategy Overview: Maybe it’s Bohanon’s bench press or Bailey’s 40 time, but something about this mode of drafting appeals to us more than it did last month. Bailey looks more like a third-rounder. We would also replace David Bass with Cornelius Washington out of Georgia for his crazy athleticism and SEC pedigree.
While trading down limits the possibility of picking a game-changer, 2013 has remarkable depth and could provide important role players in the middle rounds.
We plan on updating these draft strategies in a few weeks based on New England free agent signings and player pro day updates. Please stay tuned.
Chris Warner’s email is [email protected]