Round-By-Round Review, Pats Draft 2014

Last year on BSMW, we took a close look at each New England draft round  of the Bill Belichick era. Time to take 2013′s selections into account.

As of right now, Coach Belichick has seven picks in the 2014 draft, with an extra sixth-rounder making up for the lack of a fifth-rounder (resulting from the trade for defensive tackle Isaac Sopoaga). The Patriots may get an additional late-round compensatory pick due to some free agent defections in 2013.

Every one of New England’s seven 2013 choices saw the field, with some displaying strong progression throughout the year. The team also added a handful of undrafted rookies who contributed. A complete list of undrafted free agents signed right after draft weekend can be seen here.

First Round –

2000: None (pick went to NYJ for BB)

2001: Richard Seymour, DL, Georgia

2002: Dan Graham, TE, Colorado

2003: Ty Warren, DL, Texas A&M

2004: Vince Wilfork, DL, Miami; Benjamin Watson, TE, Georgia

2005: Logan Mankins, OL, Fresno State

2006: Laurence Maroney, RB, Minnesota

2007: Brandon Meriweather, DB, Miami

2008: Jerod Mayo, LB, Tennessee

2009: (No Pick – traded down)

2010: Devin McCourty, DB, Rutgers

2011: Nate Solder, OT, Colorado

2012: Chandler Jones, DE, Syracuse; Dont’a Hightower, LB, Alabama

2013: (No Pick – traded down)

Total Picks: 13

Successful Picks: 11 (sans Maroney, Meriweather)

Most Successful Pick: Seymour

Percentage: 85

Every Patriots First-Round pick has started for the Patriots; Maroney and Meriweather went by the wayside too quickly for us to deem them successes.

In any case, if you’re New England’s first round pick, chances are you can skip renting and go straight to buying.

Second Round –

2000: Adrian Klemm, OT, Hawaii

2001: Matt Light, OT, Purdue

2002: Deion Branch, WR, Louisville

2003: Eugene Wilson, DB, Illinois; Bethel Johnson, WR, Texas A&M

2004: Marquise Hill, DE, LSU

2005: (No pick)

2006: Chad Jackson, WR, Florida

2007: (No pick – traded for Wes Welker)

2008: Terrence Wheatley, DB, Colorado

2009: Patrick Chung, DB, Oregon; Ron Brace, DT, BC; Darius Butler, DB, UConn; Sebastian Vollmer, OT, Houston

2010: Rob Gronkowski, TE, Arizona; Jermaine Cunningham, DE, Florida; Brandon Spikes, LB, Florida.

2011: Ras-I Dowling, DB, Virginia; Shane Vereen, RB, California

2012: Tavon Wilson, DB, Illinois

2013: Jamie Collins, OLB, Southern Miss; Aaron Dobson, WR, Marshall

Total Picks: 19

Successful Picks: 9 (Light, Branch, E. Wilson, Vollmer, Gronkowski, Spikes, Vereen, T. Wilson, Collins)

Most Successful Pick: Light

Percentage: 47

If there’s such a thing as Second-Round DB phobia, New England fans have developed it. After finding success with Eugene Wilson in 2003, the Pats drafted Wheatley, Chung, Butler and Dowling, none of whom remains with the team. Tavon Wilson, seen by almost everyone outside of Foxboro as a George-Mikan-size reach in 2012, has been relegated to special teams duty after some less-than-inspiring safety play. He has one more season to turn it around.

Big, big drop-off from the First Round here, though fans should take heart in recent successes. Vereen has the tools of a dynamic player, while both Collins and Dobson have the size and athleticism to make opponents pay attention.

Third Round –

2000: J. R. Redmond, RB, Arizona State

2001: Brock Williams, DB, Notre Dame

2002: (No pick)

2003: (No pick)

2004: Guss Scott, DB, Florida

2005: Ellis Hobbs III, CB, Iowa State; Nick Kaczur, OL, Toledo

2006: David Thomas, TE, Texas

2007: (No pick)

2008: Shawn Crable, OLB, Michigan; Kevin O’Connell, QB, San Diego State

2009: Brandon Tate, WR, North Carolina; Tyrone McKenzie, LB, South Florida

2010: Taylor Price, WR, Ohio

2011: Stevan Ridley, RB, LSU; Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas

2012: Jake Bequette, DE, Arkansas

2013: Logan Ryan, DB, Rutgers; Duron Harmon, DB, Rutgers

Total Picks: 16

Successful Picks: 6 (Hobbs, Kaczur, Ridley, Mallett, Ryan, Harmon)

Most Successful Pick: Ridley

Percentage: 38

We’re calling 2013′s Rutgers duo a success for now, though Ryan’s lack of speed has us wondering if he won’t have the same type of sophomore slump that forced McCourty to safety.

Between O’Connell (2008), Price (2010) and Harmon (2013), Round Three looks like  the Take-A-Chance round. Players like Bequette (2012) and McKenzie (2009) make it the Overrated Potential round. Ridley and Mallett (both 2011) were obvious exceptions.

Fourth Round –

2000: Greg Robinson-Randall, OT, Michigan State

2001: Kenyatta Jones, OT, South Florida; Jabari Holloway, TE, Notre Dame

2002: Rohan Davey, QB, LSU; Jarvis Green, DE, LSU

2003: Dan Klecko, DL, Temple; Asante Samuel, CB, Central Florida

2004: Dexter Reid, DB, North Carolina; Cedric Cobbs, RB, Arkansas

2005: James Sanders, DB, Fresno State

2006: Garrett Mills, FB, Tulsa; Stephen Gostkowski, K, Memphis

2007: Kareem Brown, DL, Miami

2008: Jonathan Wilhite, DB, Auburn

2009: Rich Ohrnberger, OL, Penn State

2010: Aaron Hernandez, TE, Florida

2011: (No Pick)

2012: (No Pick)

2013: Josh Boyce, WR, TCU

Total Picks: 17

Successful Picks: 5 (Green, Samuel, Sanders, Gostkowski, Boyce)

Most Successful Pick: Gostkowski

Percentage: 29

Not much to look at here. Green (2003) was their first major contributor; Samuel played a key role in the last two championships. After Gostkowski’s performance in the Divisional playoff win vs. Indianapolis (kicking and punting), we moved him to Most Successful Pick status, replacing Samuel.

We see Boyce as a success because of the potential he showed on the field: another better-than-average athlete who should be able to win one-on-one battles once he gets the offense down pat.

The Tight End Named Above Who Shall Not Be Named Again made the successful picks list in last year’s column.

Fifth Round – 

2000: Dave Stachelski, TE, Boise State; Jeff Marriott, DT, Missouri

2001: Hakim Akbar, DB, Washington

2002: (No pick)

2003: Dan Koppen, OL, Boston College

2004: P. K. Sam, WR, Florida State

2005: Ryan Claridge, OLB, UNLV

2006: Ryan O’Callaghan, OL, California

2007: Clint Oldenburg, OL, Colorado State

2008: Matthew Slater, WR, UCLA

2009: George Bussey, OL, Louisville

2010: Zoltan Mesko, P, Michigan

2011: Marcus Cannon, OL, TCU; Lee Smith, TE, Marshall

2012: (No pick)

2013: (No pick)

Total Picks: 13

Successful Picks: 4 (Koppen, Slater, Mesko, Cannon)

Most Successful Pick: Koppen

Percentage: 31

As we said last year: We used to call Round Five “Koppen or Bust.” Now,  Slater and Cannon have added some credibility to this part of the draft, with Cannon ending a dreary streak of failed O-linemen. Does Mesko still belong in the successful column? We think so: he did a better-than-average job for three seasons.

Unless a trade happens, no fifth-rounder this year.

Sixth Round –

2000: Antwan Harris, CB, Virginia; Tom Brady, QB, Michigan; David Nugent, DT, Purdue.

2001: Arther Love, TE, South Carolina State; Leonard Myers, DB, Miami

2002: (No pick)

2003: Kliff Kingsbury, QB, Texas Tech

2004: (No pick)

2005: (No pick)

2006: Jeremy Mincey, OLB, Florida; Dan Stevenson, OL, Notre Dame; LeKevin Smith, DL, Nebraska

2007: Justin Rogers, OLB, SMU; Justise Hairston, RB, Central Connecticut; Corey Hilliard, OL, Oklahoma State

2008: Bo Ruud, OLB, Nebraska

2009: Jake Ingram, LS, Hawaii; Myron Pryor, DT, Kentucky

2010: Ted Larsen, C, NC State

2011: Markell Carter, DE, Central Arkansas

2012: Nate Ebner, DB, Ohio State

2013: (No Pick)

Total Picks: 18

Successful Picks: 3 (Brady, Pryor, Ebner)

Most Successful Pick: One guess

Percentage: 17

Ah, The Brady Round. Because of their 2000 selection of Our Tom (note: their second pick in that round), New England could select a syphilitic horseshoe crab in this spot and still have fans believing, “You know, if they coach him up, maybe he’ll contribute.”

Ebner, a solid special-teamer drafted as such, demonstrates a recent positive worth reviewing. They have two sixth-rounders this year (with a potential compensatory pick as well).

Seventh Round – 

2000: Casey Tisdale, OLB, New Mexico; Patrick Pass, RB, Georgia

2001: Owen Pochman, K, BYU; T. J. Turner, LB, Michigan State

2002: Antwoine Womack, RB, Virginia; David Givens, WR, Notre Dame

2003: Spencer Nead, TE, BYU; Tully Banta-Cain, LB, California; Ethan Kelley, NT, Baylor

2004: Christian Morton, CB, Florida State

2005: Matt Cassel, QB, Southern California; Andy Stokes, TE, William Penn

2006: Willie Andrews, DB, Baylor

2007: Oscar Lua, LB, Southern California; Mike Elgin, OL, Iowa

2008: (No pick)

2009: Julian Edelman, WR, Kent State; Darryl Richardson, DT, Georgia Tech

2010: Thomas Welch, OT, Vanderbilt; Brandon Deaderick, DL, Alabama; Kade Weston, DL, Georgia; Zac Robinson, QB, Oklahoma State

2011: Malcolm Williams, CB, TCU

2012: Alfonso Dennard, DB, Nebraska; Jeremy Ebert, WR, Northwestern

2013: Michael Buchanan, DE, Illinois; Steve Beauharnais, LB, Rutgers

Total Picks: 26 (What?)

Successful Picks: 9 (Pass, Givens, Banta-Cain, Cassel, Edelman, Deaderick, Williams, Dennard, Buchanan)

Most Successful Pick: Edelman

Percentage: 35

A noteworthy uptick here arising from the shotgun effect. The Patriots take a humongous amount of picks (26 in 14 years) and get the most they can out of those players to deepen their roster – or, in the case of Edelman, groom them into starters. This makes the waning hours of draft weekend exciting for Foxboro followers: after Round Three’s 38 percent, the best odds to contribute go to New England’s final selections in each draft.

We replaced Cassel with Edelman as most successful pick after the latter’s breakout season in 2013.

UDFAs

After teams select their rookies, they embark on a hard-core, gem-in-the-dirt search. The Patriots excel at this activity. Some past undrafted free agents who contributed: Stephen Neal, OL; Tom Ashworth, OL; Eric Alexander, LB; Randall Gay, DB; Wesley Britt, OL; Antwain Spann, CB; Kyle Eckel, RB; Santonio Thomas, DL: Mike Wright, DL; Corey Mays, LB; Pierre Woods, OLB; BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB; Vince Redd, OLB, Tyson Devree, TE; Gary Guyton, LB; Brian Hoyer, QB; Ray Ventrone, DB.

Some UDFAs on the roster now (2013 signees in bold): Ryan Allen, P, Louisiana Tech; Brandon Bolden, RB, Ole Miss; Kanorris Davis, DB, Troy; Dane Fletcher, LB, Montana State; Justin Green, DB, Illinois;  Josh Kline, OL, Kent State; Kenbrell Thompkins, WR, Cincinnati; Joe Vellano, DL, Maryland.

Other 2013 undrafted players of note: Chris Jones, DL out of Bowling Green (not included above because he initially signed with another team after the draft), and injured reserve players T. J. Moe (WR, Missouri), Mark Harrison (WR, Rutgers) and Cory “Pork Chop” Grissom (DL, South Florida).

Our advice to Coach Belichick (and we know he’s hanging on our every word) involves using mid-round picks to trade up for players he wants, and continuing to fill out the roster with seventh-rounders and undrafted free agents.

So, what’s your idea on the coach’s draft plan this year? What’s your favorite draft round of the past 14 years? Leave a comment below.

Chris Warner can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter @cwarn89

 

 

  • bsmfan

    Chris, clearly you didn’t get the memo from Felger and Mazz. (Cash Register ringing up a sale plays in the background.)

    First 3 rounds: TRADE DOWN.

    VALUE PICKS IN THE 4/5/6/7 ROUNDS + UDFA FROM RUTGERS THAT NEVER PAN OUT.

    TEAM LOSES IN THE AFCCG BECAUSE KRAFT SUCKS AND THE CAP IS CRAP.

    (Cash Register ringing up a sale plays in the background.)

    • Mgar6577

      Also don’t forget that the entire Off season’s success is based on signing Ed Reed to whatever he wants.