Combine Snubs Who Showed ’Em, Part I

Sometimes finding specific information on the NFL’s website feels like trying to track down some guy named Murph on St. Patrick’s Day: you pretty much know what you’re looking for, but you have no idea how to narrow the search.

One thing NFL.com does get right? Posting Gil Brandt’s oft-entertaining pro day blog. Every football player has a story; for those not invited to the NFL combine, each pro day serves as an introduction.

The NFL’s site also does a pretty good job of explaining such drills as the 20-yard, or short, shuttle (five yards left, 10 yards right, five yards left) and the 3-cone or L drill.

Below, some workout notables who excelled at their early March pro days after missing the NFL combine in February. [Read more...]

Pats Draft Strategies: Post-Combine Review

In our previous draft strategies column, we discussed various methods of going about the selection process. After the NFL scouting combine and an early pro day, it’s time to review our prospects for each strategy.

Heights and weights have been edited to show changes from pre-combine listings.

PLAY IT STRAIGHT

(Based on New England picking in their allotted slots)

FIRST ROUND: John Jenkins, Georgia DL (6-4, 359 346).

[Read more...]

Patriots Draft: Three Strategies

By Chris Warner

As the draft approaches (not ’til April 25, but hey, it’s happening, people), we’ll take periodic looks at Coach Bill Belichick’s possible drafting methods and the potential players available.

As of this week, the Patriots have five picks in the 2013 draft: Rounds One (29th overall), Two (59), Three (91) and Round Seven (two picks TBD).

This gives New England some leeway to make some moves, but not as much as in the past. (Speaking of the past, click here for a round-by-round breakdown of all New England drafts under Coach Belichick). By its nature, drafting involves gambling. Hence, the scenarios listed below. [Read more...]

Making The Rounds, New England Style

By Chris Warner

A few years ago over on Patriot Daily, we reviewed Patriots drafts under Bill Belichick round by round. With their 2012 rookie haul showing strong potential – and a different approach in recent draft strategy – it’s time to take another look at April additions since 2000.

This year, New England has five selections overall, one each in Round One, Two and Three and two in the Round Seven. As you’ll see below, that could work out well for the team based on their draft history. [Read more...]

Senior Bowl Patriots Prospects

The following eight players caught our eye at this year’s Senior Bowl this past Saturday.

Ezekial Ansah, BYU DE (6-5, 270). The Ghanaian Go-getter stood out in the Senior Bowl with a persistent pass rush (1.5 sacks, forced fumble) and an eye-bulging ability to chase down runners. Kept the broadcasters focused on him throughout the game with several individual plays (seven overall tackles). Has only played football since 2010, so scouts slobber over his potential.

Kawann Short, Purdue DL (6-3, 315). Short by name, huge on talent, this Boilermaker provided consistent pressure up the middle and seemed unblockable at times, earning the North’s Most Outstanding Player honors. Can play in a 3-4 or 4-3 alignment and would instantly provide a stout presence in the middle – where the Patriots lacked depth this season. Had 14.5 tackles for loss this past year.

Desmond Trufant, Washington DB (6-0, 186). This consensus first-rounder seems ready to step up to the next level, showing strength and quickness while also displaying a strong field sense. Began the Senior Bowl with one of its most impressive plays, chasing down speedster Robert Alford on the opening kickoff to save a TD.

Larry Warford, Kentucky OL (6-3, 333). Warford made the highlight reel several times, most notably on a pancake block during the South’s ultimate touchdown drive. A mauler who could add strength and depth to the Patriots’ interior offensive line.

Brian Schwenke, California OL (6-4, 300). Playing for the South (go figure), Schwenke demonstrated the type of versatility Coach Bill Belichick covets by playing left guard on one TD drive and then center on another. He showed quick feet and solid leverage on several plays.

Conner Vernon, Duke WR (6-1, 200). Whatever Vernon lacks in straight line speed, he makes up in route precision. The Blue Devil caught four passes for 36 yards in the Senior Bowl and looked like one of the afternoon’s most consistent receivers. That makes sense, as he set the ACC record for career receptions. Also stood out as a perimeter blocker.

Marquise Goodwin, Texas WR (5-9, 180). Goodwin failed to produce big numbers at Texas (26 catches, 340 yards). But, playing for the North (again, go figure) his five receptions for 44 yards led all receivers. Throw in 30 yards on two punt returns, and you can color us intrigued. A world-class athlete who made it to the London Olympics for the long jump, Goodwin has the speed and quickness to extend short passes into long gains.

E. J. Manuel, Florida State QB (6-4, 240). The best, most consistent QB at the Senior Bowl, it was no coincidence the South’s three TDs happened with him under center. Manuel earned South team Most Outstanding Player honors, completing seven of 10 passes and one TD while running for another. While New England may want to avoid drafting a quarterback too high, Manuel has the athleticism and poise to instill any team with confidence in the backup position.

Any players you saw on Saturday that caught your interest, please let us know in the comment section below.

You can email Chris Warner notes of praise and/or haikus at [email protected]

 

Pats Bye Some Rest, Predictions Review

So, despite failing to show up against a handful of opponents, regardless of some occasional offensive inconsistency and a defensive backfield with plenty of consistency (albeit that of Swiss cheese), here New England sits, AFC East champs with a first-round bye.

And they could use it. From tight end Rob Gronkowski’s glass arm to the shaky status of cornerback Aqib Talib, this week of rest comes at a great time.

First, a quick review of our (not-so-great) predictions for Games 13 through 16.

FOURTH QUARTER PREDICTION REVIEW

Game 13 Prediction: HOU 30, NE 27

Actual Result: NE 42, HOU 14

Sometimes, being wrong feels right. The Patriots raced out to a 21-0 lead and kept the pressure throughout the second half. Surprising to watch the Texans fold in the face of adversity; we thought QB Matt Schaub could offer more than that.

New England apparently showed the rest of the league a few things, as Houston went from a dominant-seeming 10-1 to an all-too-human 12-4 over their last four games, losing the first-round bye in the process.

Game 14 Prediction: NE 20, SF 16

Actual Result: SF 41, NE 34

Sometimes, being wrong feels wrong. The home team must have been in the holiday mood, as the Pats gave away four footballs on the night. The heroic second-half efforts of Tom Brady, and Lil’ Danny Woodhead knotted the score at 31, but San Francisco got the lead back and held on to win.

Hey, remember back in September when those NFC West games made New England’s schedule look super easy? The Pats went 1-3 vs. those guys.

Still can’t believe they lost to Arizona. The Cardinals didn’t realize that would be their high point of 2012.

Game 15 Prediction: NE 31, JAX 20

Actual Result: NE 23, JAX 16

After two much-ballyhooed matchups, New England figuratively trudged over to Grandma’s house to play Crazy Eights for four hours. They overcame a double-digit deficit to tie it at halftime, then broke out to a 23-13 lead and hung on.

The good? New England’s D allowed only 16 points while getting two red zone turnovers. The bad? Whatever the hell went on between Brady and his receivers. Sitcom fathers and teenage daughters communicate better.

Game 16 Prediction: MIA 27, NE 24

Actual Result: NE 28, MIA 0

Oof, what a prediction. In my defense, I figured the Pats would be out of bye contention (thanks again, Houston late-season swoon!) and would sit starters. Instead, Bradypassed for two TDs while the defense came up with seven sacks and pitched their first shutout of the season.

Two positives heading into the bye: Brady seemed to rediscover some of his rhythm (at least with most of his receivers – see below), and the Pats did a solid job running the football (167 yards) vs. a strong rushing defense (108 yards-against average).

Predicted 2012 Fourth Quarter Record: 2-2

Actual 2012 Fourth Quarter Record: 3-1

Predicted Season Record: 11-5

Actual Season Record: 12-4

 

PLAYOFF POINTS

A few things to consider heading into the bye week…

Do’s and Dont’a: Hey, um, Dont’a Hightower? We all understand the desire to hit the opposing quarterback, but penalties on third and long don’t really help the cause. The fact you later went out of your way to lay a hit on Ryan Tannehill near the sideline (legal, but you never know in today’s NFL) shows that maybe you failed to take the earlier message into account.

Logan Err Port: The left guard position has not been the same this year, as Logan Mankins has been injured and a bit off. A frequent guest on the Mike Reiss penalty count on ESPN’s Patriots blog, Mankins made another appearance this week with an offsides demerit.

Listen, you can’t question Mankins’ toughness, especially after playing most of last season on a knee held together with athletic tape and an old-school, New-England-style mindset (If I ignore it, it will go away). The O-line works better with him playing. It would just work even more effectively without the slip-ups.

Rob-bing Ninko To Pay Gronk: Looks like one Rob for the other, as linebacker Rob Ninkovich sustained a hip injury during the same game tight end Gronkowski returned. While Ninkovich’s status remains murky for the playoffs, there’s no question how much the bye week will benefit Gronkowski, as he tended to favor his forearm like he was cradling a Faberge egg.

Lighten Up, Francis: Or, now that we think of it, don’t. Undrafted rookie Justin Francis has demonstrated why Coach Bill Belichick and Co. thought it a good ideer to keep him around. Three sacks for the Rutgers alum, who benefited from active participation from fellow rookie Chandler Jones, Brandon Deaderick (one sack), Vince Wilfork (of course) and Trevor Scott (one sack).

Lloyd! Man, if Brandon Lloyd could, like … I mean, if he would just … I don’t know. You know? One week, he seems like he’s really starting to get it, arriving on time to where Brady’s throwing the ball. The next week, the QB-WR tandem hooks up about as often as high school me and Molly Ringwald (she never answered my letters. Hm. Sad).

With defenses clogging up the middle of the field to combat the short routes of Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez and Gronkowski, Lloyd’s performance will come under a microscope in two weeks.

But for now, the Patriots have time.

Whatever you do, do NOT email Chris Warner at [email protected]

New England To Go 11-5? Fourth Quarter 2012 Predictions

Well, in light of the Patriots 4-0 run in Games Nine through 12, we here at BSMW have a lot of pressure on us to pick their final record.

We figured New England would get off to a slow start (2-2), improve that mark in the second quarter (3-1),  and run the table in the third.  So far, so good.

While we thought the Patriots would lead the AFC East, the fact they clinched with four games left surprised us. It could also change how they go about playing these last regular-season games. Not a terrible problem to have, really.

[Read more...]

New England To Go 9-3? Third Quarter 2012 Predictions

Well, having the Rams game on our DVR during the bye week was, as my father used to say, not too shabby.

New England wrapped up Part I of the season on a jolly good note. Throughout the first eight games, they’ve performed excellently in some stretches (the second half at Buffalo, the last 57 minutes in London against St. Louis) inconsistently in others (losing fourth-quarter leads at home to the Jets and at Effing Seattle).

Let’s consider the upcoming second half as a sequel that improves on the original. Much like, oh, Cannonball Run II, for example.

We predicted a 3-1 record this quarter but, for the second month in a row, chose an incorrect victorious opponent. Here’s your monthly review/preview …

Keep reading this post

New England 5-3? Second Quarter 2012 Predictions

You know, a .500 record in September isn’t that bad, people.

When we predicted a slow 2-2 start by the Patriots in our preseason column, we were met with, shall we say, resistance (link here).

New England has had some misfortune. The Aaron Hernandez injury forced them into a different offensive mindset, and other players struggled to take up the slack. The defense displayed lapses similar to 2011 (for whatever reason, it seems rare that defenders look back at the ball). Special teams failed to live up to their adjective.

The good news? This young New England team should only improve as we head into the second quarter of the season. Judging by their 45-0 second half at Buffalo, the Pats have tapped into the potential to do some damage.

So, relax, think positive thoughts, and check out our first quarter review/second quarter preview.

Game One Prediction: NE 23, TEN 20

Actual Result: NE 34, TEN 13

We figure the visitors will get off to a slow start, but New England shines in all phases of the game. Most Telling Stat: Titan Chris Johnson gains 4 yards on 11 carries while Patriot Stevan Ridley garners 125 on 21 totes.

Game Two Prediction: NE 31, ARI 13

Actual Result: ARI 20, NE 18

Underrated Arizona stuns New England – both the team and the region – as the home opener includes a blocked punt, a holding call on what would have been the leading TD, and a missed potential game-winning field goal.

Game Three Prediction: BAL 27, NE 23

Actual Result: BAL 31, NE 30

Playing with a little something extra after the death of his brother, Torrey (aka Torrid) Smith burns the Patriots secondary as, in a well-worn scenario, the offense can’t run out the clock while the defense can’t keep an opponent at bay late. New England surrenders a 30-21 lead in the final five minutes.

Game Four Prediction: BUF 21, NE 20

Actual Result: NE 52, BUF 28

Things look grim going into this one with the absences of receiver Julian Edelman and guard Logan Mankins. New England’s D delivers a goal-line stand to keep it close at the half; their offense come through with a remarkable outburst to erase a 21-7 deficit. Four Patriots compiled over 100 yards of offense each (Ridley and Brandon Bolden rushing, Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski receiving).

As Coach Belichick might say, we’re looking ahead to next week. Or the next four weeks, actually. The good news? The Pats should have a winning record by the bye. The bad news? Peyton Manning’s coming to town, and he’s bringing his friends.

2012 SECOND QUARTER PREDICTIONS

Vs. DENVER (Sun, Oct. 7, 4:25 p.m.) DEN 27, NE 24.

Manning has looked like his old self of late, and few quarterbacks know the Patriots better than he does (Broncos center Dan Koppen knows them even better). New England needs enough skill players to allow Tom Brady to avoid cornerback Champ Bailey; with their current slate of injuries, they may have a hard time keeping up.

As an aside, I’d pay to watch video of Patriots backup QB Ryan Mallett doing his impression of Manning on the practice field. It must look like a stork imitating an ostrich.

At SEATTLE (Sun, Oct. 14, 4:05 p.m.) – NE 20, SEA 16

This could get ugly. Seattle QB Russell Wilson strikes fear in the hearts of few, but the 2012 version of the Seahawks has proven a tough out at home. Pass-rusher Chris Clemons, helped by a level of crowd noise Gillette Stadium hasn’t seen since forever, could do some damage against Pats tackle Nate Solder.

Plus, Coach Pete Carroll seems to know what he’s doing. Go figure.

Vs. NEW YORK (Sun, Oct. 21, 4:25 p.m.) – NE 30, NYJ 20

The Patriots should be able to control the game offensively considering the Jets’ difficulty defending the run and their acute Revis deficiency. We predict a relatively close one because this rates as the Jets’ annual Super Bowl. Unfortunately for them, their offense has been lighting it up about as often as a non-smoker in a gunpowder shack.

(I assume gunpowder shacks exist. I watched a lot of Bugs Bunny cartoons.)

At ST. LOUIS (Sun, Oct. 28, 1 p.m.) – NE 28, STL 20

The Rams have competed this season, yet remain mediocre in almost every statistical category. QB Sam Bradford will have to beat the Pats, as the visitors will focus on stopping St. Louis’ running game. Notable stat: in last week’s 19-13 victory over Seattle, the Rams’ kicking team scored all points (including a nifty fake kick/TD pass that looked an awful lot like the Adam-Vinatieri-to-Troy-Brown hookup of November 2004).

We expect the Patriots’ defense to mesh better and the offense to find its rhythm by the end of October, setting the team up for success in the second half (and, we assume, beyond the regular season).

Predicted record for Games Five through Eight: 3-1

Predicted record at midseason: 5-3

Predicted season record: 11-5

You can email Chris Warner happy tidings at [email protected]

New England 2-2? First Quarter 2012 Predictions

Soo, ready for the season yet, or do you want another preseason game?

Nope? All set? Good.

Speaking of which, before we get into our predictions of the first four contests of the season, a quick review of our Preseason Predictions column posted at the beginning of August.

Preseason Predictions (Proper): Pretty short list. Two preseason wins or less (at 1-3, the Pats fell in line). Also, we guessed that, while Stevan Ridley would produce the most, Brandon Bolden could secure a roster spot with solid play. Donald Thomas would start at guard, while Ryan Mallett “(would) get plenty of opportunities to play.”

Preseason Predictions (Poor): We had Bolden scoring the most TDs (zero won’t do it), Aaron Hernandez getting the most receptions, and Jabar Gaffney with the most reception yardage (even without his injury, that probably wasn’t going to happen).

Ah, well. Why let a few mistakes get in the way? Let’s be pundits!

At TENNESSEE (Sun, 9/9, 1 p.m.) NE 23, TEN 20.

Titans quarterback Jack Locker comes into this game with three advantages: home crowd, strong scrambling skills, and opponent ignorance. On that last point, New England has so little film on Locker they may as well be scouting Nessie. With a strong running game, we can see Locker doing just enough – even without Kenny “Officer, I Haven’t Had Anydrink To Thing Tonight” Britt at receiver – to give the Pats’ defense a challenge.

Meanwhile, the visiting offense takes a while to round into form, as the starting line this off-season have seen each other about as often as Giselle and the inside of a Wal-Mart. We predict a win, but a close one.

Vs. ARIZONA (Sun, 9/16, 1 p.m.) – NE 31, ARI 13.

Your starting quarterback for Arizona: John “Who, me?” Skelton, who beat out Kevin “Ka-ching!” Kolb and Ryan Lindley. Seriously, this three-headed QB is kind of like Cerberus, if Cerberus were a mini Chihuahua.

Offensively, the home opener should see the Patriots pull an Earth, Wind, and Fire and really get into a groove.

At BALTIMORE (Sun, 9/23, 8:20 p.m.) – BAL 27, NE 23

If you’re from Baltimore – sorry: If youse’re from Balmer, you want this game. The Ravens came within one dropped pass of victory and one missed field goal of overtime in last year’s AFC Champsionship at Foxboro. Linebacker Ray Lewis would actually rip off someone’s head and shout at it to ensure a win – and that would be his own teammate. With New England starting more slowly than Don Criqui matching a uniform number with a player while Baltimore gets inspired by the past more than Ron Borges’ barber, it should become a tough slog down in Charm City for the Pats.

But man, wouldn’t it be great if the Pats won on a questionable call by a replacement official? Even watching from his couch, Terrell Suggs would get so upset he’d pass out after forgetting to breathe out of his mouth.

At BUFFALO (Sun, 9/30, 1 p.m.) – BUF 21, NE 20

After a 2-0 start, the Patriots move back to .500 with a lame effort against Buffalo. Too many weapons on defense and a good-enough game from Ryan “Oh, I Went To School Near Boston – In Cambridge, As A Matter Of Fact” Fitzpatrick keep the visiting offense on their toes and the defense on their heels. Mario “I’m Not Injured Yet” Williams will make a difference, throwing Tom Brady off-rhythm and allowing the Bills to drop about 40 players into coverage.

The home fans feel very happy, until they leave the stadium and realize they live in Buffalo.

Predicted record after four games: 2-2

Predicted season record: 11-5

You can email Chris Warner a polite and cheery note at [email protected]