Combine Snubs Who Showed ’Em, Part I

Sometimes finding specific information on the NFL’s website feels like trying to track down some guy named Murph on St. Patrick’s Day: you pretty much know what you’re looking for, but you have no idea how to narrow the search.

One thing NFL.com does get right? Posting Gil Brandt’s oft-entertaining pro day blog. Every football player has a story; for those not invited to the NFL combine, each pro day serves as an introduction.

The NFL’s site also does a pretty good job of explaining such drills as the 20-yard, or short, shuttle (five yards left, 10 yards right, five yards left) and the 3-cone or L drill.

Below, some workout notables who excelled at their early March pro days after missing the NFL combine in February. [Read more...]

Loss Of Welker Hard To Swallow, But Patriots Will Move On

Let’s be clear about this: The loss of Wes Welker, especially to the Broncos, is very hard to take.

Welker is everything you’d want in a football player, talented, hardworking, well-liked, dependable, historically productive and he stays on the field.

Anyone who trashes or attempts to degrade Welker on his way out of town is out of their mind. Welker deserves to be appreciated for all that he did here, and recognized by both the fans and team down the line.

To lose all that he brings is a huge blow. There’s no doubt about that. But spare me the phrases “slap in the face,” “lowballed,” “insulted” and so forth. Welker took what he thought was the best offer for him, and it was 2-years, $12 million. Is it really insulting and lowballing when the offer he takes is “only” a million dollars more per year? Or, another way, $10 millions with incentives to push further is “lowball,” $12 million is “reasonable.” OK.

As for the money in the contracts, I’ll let BSMW member Boda weigh in:

It baffles me how obtuse the media are when it comes to anything financial. Let’s first establish a factual point: from a team’s perspective, an NFL contract that pays $6 million per year for five years with $10 million guaranteed is FAR preferable to a contract that pays $6 million per year for two years with $10 million guaranteed. From the player’s perspective, the exact opposite is true.

Every NFL player would prefer Wes’ deal to Amendola’s deal. Every NFL team would prefer Amendola’s deal to Wes’ deal for a particular player.

What’s debatable is how each player will perform over the next 2-5 years

Clearly the decision had been made to move on from Welker unless they got him at the price they wanted, and they likely knew he wasn’t going to take the price they wanted. If you’re going to use terms to describe this decision, I’m OK with “cold” and “calculating” and even “ruthless.”

Mike Reiss has a good look at how the negotiations went down:

How Wes Welker, Patriots parted

I’ve heard and read from media members all over the country this week, even while the Baltimore Ravens lose half their team (after signing their QB to the biggest contract ever) that Ozzie Newsome has a plan. “Ozzie ALWAYS has a plan.” (Do a search on that phrase on Twitter.)

I believe Ozzie Newsome does have a plan. He’s a damn good GM with a great track record, including the current Super Bowl champions. I have faith that he knows what he’s doing.

But Bill Belichick and the Patriots make the decision to move on from Wes Welker, and it becomes a personality flaw. Belichick’s arrogant. His ego is leading the team. He thinks he’s smarter than everyone else. In addition, if you even suggest that perhaps Belichick knows what he’s doing, and point their record of success since 2001, you get the sarcastic “In Bill We Trust” usually accompanied by an eyeroll. Or there is the “Belichick toadies” comment, or reminders of Belichick’s infallibility and miscues, of which he’s had plenty, but I’d wager less than most executives around the league.

I just know that since 2001, the exact same people have been saying annually that Belichick’s arrogance is going to come back to bite him.

The Patriots have a record of letting guys go before they start their sharp decline. I fully expect Wes Welker to have a terrific year in Denver, and I’ll even enjoy watching catch passes from Peyton Manning – except of course when the Broncos are playing the Patriots. He’ll be great this year. I have no doubt. But next year? Who knows?

Like death and taxes, you know you can count on Ron Borges to lend his fair and balanced opinion to the matter. Ron brings up the following names to bolster his case that the Patriots cheap out on players:

Ty Law, Asante Samuel, Willie McGinest, Ty Warren, David Givens, David Patten, Damien Woody, Adam Vinatieri and BenJarvus Green-Ellis.

OK. So where were they so glaringly wrong there? Vinatieri maybe? He’s a kicker. Asante Samuel played OK, but was he worth the contract he got from the Eagles? Woody had a couple OK years. Green-Ellis was replaced by the more talented Stevan Ridley.

They traded Richard Seymour before he hit free agency. You can argue that he would’ve helped the 2009 Patriots, but that team, in retrospect was in full rebuild-on-the-fly mode. They cut Lawyer Milloy and won back-to-back Super Bowls. They traded Randy Moss and got better.

Generally, these types of decisions have later proven to be correct. I’d say the one move the backfired the most was trading Deion Branch.

The bigger point here is the Patriots offense. Since Welker came on board in 2007, the offense has revolved around him. He’s the guy Tom Brady has looked to the most. By far. The offense has been Welker-centric. It’s been phenomenally successful during the regular season. The postseason, less so. Let’s be clear about this, too, it’s not Welker’s fault.

In their last five playoff losses – Giants, Ravens, Jets, Giants Ravens, they’ve been beaten by the same kind of team and defense. Tough, physical, were able to wall off the underneath and middle of the field, and force Brady into quick decisions with pressure.

Welker has performed well in those games. He missed the wildcard game against the Ravens after the 2009 season (more on that later) but in the other four games he had 11/103, 7/57, 7/60, 8/117. With the exception of last season’s Super Bowl loss to the Giants, Welker has had the most receptions of any Patriot in each game, and in that one Aaron Hernandez had one more catch than Welker.

The problem was not Welker, but in order to take the next step, they needed to change. They recognized it, experimenting early in the season with being less reliant on Welker. They struggled, and went back to Welker when Hernandez and Julian Edelman got hurt, and the results were familiar.

Greg A Bedard explains why they need to make a change, and does so far better than I could:

Welker move is about evolving the offense

People like Borges and Michael Silver are focused in the wrong areas. They’re all about the players while this is about the team, and the offense.

Now we come to Danny Amendola, and he is in a tough spot. Right now most people are scoffing at the idea that he is going to “replace” Welker, and I saw people making the suggestion that this is Belichick’s arrogance, thinking he can just plug another guy in and get the same production.

I’ll say it now, Amendola will not give you same production you got from Wes Welker. And that’s a good thing. (Read Bedard’s post, please.)

He’s here to fill Welker’s position, but not his production. He’s similar but different. I see these polls about “Who will catch more passes next year, Welker or Amendola?” It’s easy, Welker will.

You hear over and over about Amendola missing 20 games the last two seasons. This is cited as evidence that he is injury-prone, and not as tough as Welker.

Amendola dislocated his elbow on the opening day of the 2011 season, and the next month reinjured it and tore his triceps in practice, which landed him on IR.

Timing is the unfortunate thing here. Welker is lauded as durable, which is certainly is, but he also suffered a season-ending injury, but his just happened to take place during the final game of the regular season, when he tore his ACL. Had he injured it on opening day, and Amendola injured his in week 17 what would the discussion be like? The only game Welker missed was the playoff loss to the Ravens. To his credit, he was back for the opening game of the following season.

Last season, Amendola dislocated his clavicle, but in a way that almost killed him.  He was back in four weeks. I think he’s tough enough. Whether he can avoid these types of freak injuries remains to be seen. Between he, Hernandez, Gronkowski and (if he returns) Edelman, you’ve got four guys with a recent history of difficulty staying on the field. Health is going to be critical.

Wes Welker is going to be missed in New England. It might take Tom Brady awhile to get over not having his favorite outlet. But in the end, the offense (and the team) might be better for it. That’s The Belichick Way.

Pats Draft Strategies: Post-Combine Review

In our previous draft strategies column, we discussed various methods of going about the selection process. After the NFL scouting combine and an early pro day, it’s time to review our prospects for each strategy.

Heights and weights have been edited to show changes from pre-combine listings.

PLAY IT STRAIGHT

(Based on New England picking in their allotted slots)

FIRST ROUND: John Jenkins, Georgia DL (6-4, 359 346).

[Read more...]

Patriots Draft: Three Strategies

By Chris Warner

As the draft approaches (not ’til April 25, but hey, it’s happening, people), we’ll take periodic looks at Coach Bill Belichick’s possible drafting methods and the potential players available.

As of this week, the Patriots have five picks in the 2013 draft: Rounds One (29th overall), Two (59), Three (91) and Round Seven (two picks TBD).

This gives New England some leeway to make some moves, but not as much as in the past. (Speaking of the past, click here for a round-by-round breakdown of all New England drafts under Coach Belichick). By its nature, drafting involves gambling. Hence, the scenarios listed below. [Read more...]

Making The Rounds, New England Style

By Chris Warner

A few years ago over on Patriot Daily, we reviewed Patriots drafts under Bill Belichick round by round. With their 2012 rookie haul showing strong potential – and a different approach in recent draft strategy – it’s time to take another look at April additions since 2000.

This year, New England has five selections overall, one each in Round One, Two and Three and two in the Round Seven. As you’ll see below, that could work out well for the team based on their draft history. [Read more...]

Senior Bowl Patriots Prospects

The following eight players caught our eye at this year’s Senior Bowl this past Saturday.

Ezekial Ansah, BYU DE (6-5, 270). The Ghanaian Go-getter stood out in the Senior Bowl with a persistent pass rush (1.5 sacks, forced fumble) and an eye-bulging ability to chase down runners. Kept the broadcasters focused on him throughout the game with several individual plays (seven overall tackles). Has only played football since 2010, so scouts slobber over his potential.

Kawann Short, Purdue DL (6-3, 315). Short by name, huge on talent, this Boilermaker provided consistent pressure up the middle and seemed unblockable at times, earning the North’s Most Outstanding Player honors. Can play in a 3-4 or 4-3 alignment and would instantly provide a stout presence in the middle – where the Patriots lacked depth this season. Had 14.5 tackles for loss this past year.

Desmond Trufant, Washington DB (6-0, 186). This consensus first-rounder seems ready to step up to the next level, showing strength and quickness while also displaying a strong field sense. Began the Senior Bowl with one of its most impressive plays, chasing down speedster Robert Alford on the opening kickoff to save a TD.

Larry Warford, Kentucky OL (6-3, 333). Warford made the highlight reel several times, most notably on a pancake block during the South’s ultimate touchdown drive. A mauler who could add strength and depth to the Patriots’ interior offensive line.

Brian Schwenke, California OL (6-4, 300). Playing for the South (go figure), Schwenke demonstrated the type of versatility Coach Bill Belichick covets by playing left guard on one TD drive and then center on another. He showed quick feet and solid leverage on several plays.

Conner Vernon, Duke WR (6-1, 200). Whatever Vernon lacks in straight line speed, he makes up in route precision. The Blue Devil caught four passes for 36 yards in the Senior Bowl and looked like one of the afternoon’s most consistent receivers. That makes sense, as he set the ACC record for career receptions. Also stood out as a perimeter blocker.

Marquise Goodwin, Texas WR (5-9, 180). Goodwin failed to produce big numbers at Texas (26 catches, 340 yards). But, playing for the North (again, go figure) his five receptions for 44 yards led all receivers. Throw in 30 yards on two punt returns, and you can color us intrigued. A world-class athlete who made it to the London Olympics for the long jump, Goodwin has the speed and quickness to extend short passes into long gains.

E. J. Manuel, Florida State QB (6-4, 240). The best, most consistent QB at the Senior Bowl, it was no coincidence the South’s three TDs happened with him under center. Manuel earned South team Most Outstanding Player honors, completing seven of 10 passes and one TD while running for another. While New England may want to avoid drafting a quarterback too high, Manuel has the athleticism and poise to instill any team with confidence in the backup position.

Any players you saw on Saturday that caught your interest, please let us know in the comment section below.

You can email Chris Warner notes of praise and/or haikus at [email protected]

 

Belichick not in the wrong following Sunday’s loss

It almost seems like more has been made of what took place off the field following the AFC Championship game Sunday rather than what happened on the field during the game. Much has been made of Bill Belichick denying an interview to CBS following the game, and instead the Patriots having Devin McCourty speak to them. Many have called Belichick a “sore loser” and heavily criticized the coach for failing to give an exclusive interview to CBS, led by CBS analyst Shannon Sharpe.

Some have even said to look for a possible fine to be assessed to Belichick — don’t hold your breath. BSMW confirmed with an NFL media relations representative that Belichick did not violate the NFL’s media relations policy by not speaking with CBS following the game.

This raises the question of why was this made into such a big deal? Belichick sought out Ravens coach John Harbaugh following the game and told the Ravens coach the respect he had for them, something which Harbaugh really took to heart. Following addressing his team briefly in the locker room, Belichick took to the podium to answer questions from reporters for nearly 10 minutes. While he did not elaborate on his answers, that is standard Belichick. What else did people expect, especially following a season-ending loss in the AFC Championship game?

Belichick certainly isn’t the only losing coach in a championship game not to give an exclusive interview to the network which broadcasted the game. It is a very rare occurrence, in any sport, and when it does happen those coaches are often given great praise for doing so. Now, Belichick doesn’t do it and he gets killed for it. Furthermore, in case you missed it, 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh didn’t give FOX an exclusive interview following their win over Atlanta, so why aren’t the same people who are criticizing Belichick doing the same to Harbaugh?

For whatever reason some people playing in the league, the media and fans in general have a dislike for Belichick. He gets held to a completely different standard than any other coach in the league, and maybe even in sports as a whole. Sure, he isn’t the best coach in the world with the media, but who said that’s required of being a head coach? His main job is to coach football and he is one of the best in the history of the game.

Everyone’s opinion differs on how Belichick handles the media, but whether you agree or disagree, you have to take a step back and say he didn’t do anything wrong by not speaking with CBS following Sunday’s loss. Even some of the best coaches with the media in sports have not spoken exclusively with networks following losses in Championship games and there was nothing being said about them. It should be no different with Belichick.

And let’s be real here, following the Super Bowl in two weeks, does anyone really think the losing Harbaugh brother will do an exclusive interview with CBS? Not particularly, but if they do hats off to them, and if they don’t, no big deal we’ll carry on.

Give me a follow on Twitter at @hannable84.

Pats Bye Some Rest, Predictions Review

So, despite failing to show up against a handful of opponents, regardless of some occasional offensive inconsistency and a defensive backfield with plenty of consistency (albeit that of Swiss cheese), here New England sits, AFC East champs with a first-round bye.

And they could use it. From tight end Rob Gronkowski’s glass arm to the shaky status of cornerback Aqib Talib, this week of rest comes at a great time.

First, a quick review of our (not-so-great) predictions for Games 13 through 16.

FOURTH QUARTER PREDICTION REVIEW

Game 13 Prediction: HOU 30, NE 27

Actual Result: NE 42, HOU 14

Sometimes, being wrong feels right. The Patriots raced out to a 21-0 lead and kept the pressure throughout the second half. Surprising to watch the Texans fold in the face of adversity; we thought QB Matt Schaub could offer more than that.

New England apparently showed the rest of the league a few things, as Houston went from a dominant-seeming 10-1 to an all-too-human 12-4 over their last four games, losing the first-round bye in the process.

Game 14 Prediction: NE 20, SF 16

Actual Result: SF 41, NE 34

Sometimes, being wrong feels wrong. The home team must have been in the holiday mood, as the Pats gave away four footballs on the night. The heroic second-half efforts of Tom Brady, and Lil’ Danny Woodhead knotted the score at 31, but San Francisco got the lead back and held on to win.

Hey, remember back in September when those NFC West games made New England’s schedule look super easy? The Pats went 1-3 vs. those guys.

Still can’t believe they lost to Arizona. The Cardinals didn’t realize that would be their high point of 2012.

Game 15 Prediction: NE 31, JAX 20

Actual Result: NE 23, JAX 16

After two much-ballyhooed matchups, New England figuratively trudged over to Grandma’s house to play Crazy Eights for four hours. They overcame a double-digit deficit to tie it at halftime, then broke out to a 23-13 lead and hung on.

The good? New England’s D allowed only 16 points while getting two red zone turnovers. The bad? Whatever the hell went on between Brady and his receivers. Sitcom fathers and teenage daughters communicate better.

Game 16 Prediction: MIA 27, NE 24

Actual Result: NE 28, MIA 0

Oof, what a prediction. In my defense, I figured the Pats would be out of bye contention (thanks again, Houston late-season swoon!) and would sit starters. Instead, Bradypassed for two TDs while the defense came up with seven sacks and pitched their first shutout of the season.

Two positives heading into the bye: Brady seemed to rediscover some of his rhythm (at least with most of his receivers – see below), and the Pats did a solid job running the football (167 yards) vs. a strong rushing defense (108 yards-against average).

Predicted 2012 Fourth Quarter Record: 2-2

Actual 2012 Fourth Quarter Record: 3-1

Predicted Season Record: 11-5

Actual Season Record: 12-4

 

PLAYOFF POINTS

A few things to consider heading into the bye week…

Do’s and Dont’a: Hey, um, Dont’a Hightower? We all understand the desire to hit the opposing quarterback, but penalties on third and long don’t really help the cause. The fact you later went out of your way to lay a hit on Ryan Tannehill near the sideline (legal, but you never know in today’s NFL) shows that maybe you failed to take the earlier message into account.

Logan Err Port: The left guard position has not been the same this year, as Logan Mankins has been injured and a bit off. A frequent guest on the Mike Reiss penalty count on ESPN’s Patriots blog, Mankins made another appearance this week with an offsides demerit.

Listen, you can’t question Mankins’ toughness, especially after playing most of last season on a knee held together with athletic tape and an old-school, New-England-style mindset (If I ignore it, it will go away). The O-line works better with him playing. It would just work even more effectively without the slip-ups.

Rob-bing Ninko To Pay Gronk: Looks like one Rob for the other, as linebacker Rob Ninkovich sustained a hip injury during the same game tight end Gronkowski returned. While Ninkovich’s status remains murky for the playoffs, there’s no question how much the bye week will benefit Gronkowski, as he tended to favor his forearm like he was cradling a Faberge egg.

Lighten Up, Francis: Or, now that we think of it, don’t. Undrafted rookie Justin Francis has demonstrated why Coach Bill Belichick and Co. thought it a good ideer to keep him around. Three sacks for the Rutgers alum, who benefited from active participation from fellow rookie Chandler Jones, Brandon Deaderick (one sack), Vince Wilfork (of course) and Trevor Scott (one sack).

Lloyd! Man, if Brandon Lloyd could, like … I mean, if he would just … I don’t know. You know? One week, he seems like he’s really starting to get it, arriving on time to where Brady’s throwing the ball. The next week, the QB-WR tandem hooks up about as often as high school me and Molly Ringwald (she never answered my letters. Hm. Sad).

With defenses clogging up the middle of the field to combat the short routes of Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez and Gronkowski, Lloyd’s performance will come under a microscope in two weeks.

But for now, the Patriots have time.

Whatever you do, do NOT email Chris Warner at [email protected]

Tom Coughlin’s Encounter with Bill Belichick after Super Bowl XLVI

Another reason why I just can’t dislike Tom Coughlin even though he’s beaten the Patriots twice in the Super Bowl:

Tom Coughlin On The Handshake With Bill Belichick After Super Bowl XLVI: “Very, very moving experience for me because I tried to put myself in his shoes and how difficult that was for him. We kind of put our arms around each other – I won’t tell you what was said, but we put our arms around each other. We had embraced so I started to come back and he kind of pulled again. And so we…it was kind of a special moment.”

From Costas Tonight: 2012 Year In Review.

These guys have a long, and well documented history and friendship, having worked together under Bill Parcells with the Giants. As tough as that moment had to have been, at least there was a friend to congratulate on the other side.

New England To Go 11-5? Fourth Quarter 2012 Predictions

Well, in light of the Patriots 4-0 run in Games Nine through 12, we here at BSMW have a lot of pressure on us to pick their final record.

We figured New England would get off to a slow start (2-2), improve that mark in the second quarter (3-1),  and run the table in the third.  So far, so good.

While we thought the Patriots would lead the AFC East, the fact they clinched with four games left surprised us. It could also change how they go about playing these last regular-season games. Not a terrible problem to have, really.

[Read more...]