You are here: Home / Archives for BSMW Original Column / Patriots

New England To Go 9-3? Third Quarter 2012 Predictions

November 5, 2012 By

Well, having the Rams game on our DVR during the bye week was, as my father used to say, not too shabby.

New England wrapped up Part I of the season on a jolly good note. Throughout the first eight games, they’ve performed excellently in some stretches (the second half at Buffalo, the last 57 minutes in London against St. Louis) inconsistently in others (losing fourth-quarter leads at home to the Jets and at Effing Seattle).

Let’s consider the upcoming second half as a sequel that improves on the original. Much like, oh, Cannonball Run II, for example.

We predicted a 3-1 record this quarter but, for the second month in a row, chose an incorrect victorious opponent. Here’s your monthly review/preview …

Keep reading this post

Filed Under: BSMW Original Column, Patriots

New England 5-3? Second Quarter 2012 Predictions

October 3, 2012 By

You know, a .500 record in September isn’t that bad, people.

When we predicted a slow 2-2 start by the Patriots in our preseason column, we were met with, shall we say, resistance (link here).

New England has had some misfortune. The Aaron Hernandez injury forced them into a different offensive mindset, and other players struggled to take up the slack. The defense displayed lapses similar to 2011 (for whatever reason, it seems rare that defenders look back at the ball). Special teams failed to live up to their adjective.

The good news? This young New England team should only improve as we head into the second quarter of the season. Judging by their 45-0 second half at Buffalo, the Pats have tapped into the potential to do some damage.

So, relax, think positive thoughts, and check out our first quarter review/second quarter preview.

Game One Prediction: NE 23, TEN 20

Actual Result: NE 34, TEN 13

We figure the visitors will get off to a slow start, but New England shines in all phases of the game. Most Telling Stat: Titan Chris Johnson gains 4 yards on 11 carries while Patriot Stevan Ridley garners 125 on 21 totes.

Game Two Prediction: NE 31, ARI 13

Actual Result: ARI 20, NE 18

Underrated Arizona stuns New England – both the team and the region – as the home opener includes a blocked punt, a holding call on what would have been the leading TD, and a missed potential game-winning field goal.

Game Three Prediction: BAL 27, NE 23

Actual Result: BAL 31, NE 30

Playing with a little something extra after the death of his brother, Torrey (aka Torrid) Smith burns the Patriots secondary as, in a well-worn scenario, the offense can’t run out the clock while the defense can’t keep an opponent at bay late. New England surrenders a 30-21 lead in the final five minutes.

Game Four Prediction: BUF 21, NE 20

Actual Result: NE 52, BUF 28

Things look grim going into this one with the absences of receiver Julian Edelman and guard Logan Mankins. New England’s D delivers a goal-line stand to keep it close at the half; their offense come through with a remarkable outburst to erase a 21-7 deficit. Four Patriots compiled over 100 yards of offense each (Ridley and Brandon Bolden rushing, Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski receiving).

As Coach Belichick might say, we’re looking ahead to next week. Or the next four weeks, actually. The good news? The Pats should have a winning record by the bye. The bad news? Peyton Manning’s coming to town, and he’s bringing his friends.

2012 SECOND QUARTER PREDICTIONS

Vs. DENVER (Sun, Oct. 7, 4:25 p.m.) – DEN 27, NE 24.

Manning has looked like his old self of late, and few quarterbacks know the Patriots better than he does (Broncos center Dan Koppen knows them even better). New England needs enough skill players to allow Tom Brady to avoid cornerback Champ Bailey; with their current slate of injuries, they may have a hard time keeping up.

As an aside, I’d pay to watch video of Patriots backup QB Ryan Mallett doing his impression of Manning on the practice field. It must look like a stork imitating an ostrich.

At SEATTLE (Sun, Oct. 14, 4:05 p.m.) – NE 20, SEA 16

This could get ugly. Seattle QB Russell Wilson strikes fear in the hearts of few, but the 2012 version of the Seahawks has proven a tough out at home. Pass-rusher Chris Clemons, helped by a level of crowd noise Gillette Stadium hasn’t seen since forever, could do some damage against Pats tackle Nate Solder.

Plus, Coach Pete Carroll seems to know what he’s doing. Go figure.

Vs. NEW YORK (Sun, Oct. 21, 4:25 p.m.) – NE 30, NYJ 20

The Patriots should be able to control the game offensively considering the Jets’ difficulty defending the run and their acute Revis deficiency. We predict a relatively close one because this rates as the Jets’ annual Super Bowl. Unfortunately for them, their offense has been lighting it up about as often as a non-smoker in a gunpowder shack.

(I assume gunpowder shacks exist. I watched a lot of Bugs Bunny cartoons.)

At ST. LOUIS (Sun, Oct. 28, 1 p.m.) – NE 28, STL 20

The Rams have competed this season, yet remain mediocre in almost every statistical category. QB Sam Bradford will have to beat the Pats, as the visitors will focus on stopping St. Louis’ running game. Notable stat: in last week’s 19-13 victory over Seattle, the Rams’ kicking team scored all points (including a nifty fake kick/TD pass that looked an awful lot like the Adam-Vinatieri-to-Troy-Brown hookup of November 2004).

We expect the Patriots’ defense to mesh better and the offense to find its rhythm by the end of October, setting the team up for success in the second half (and, we assume, beyond the regular season).

Predicted record for Games Five through Eight: 3-1

Predicted record at midseason: 5-3

Predicted season record: 11-5

You can email Chris Warner happy tidings at [email protected]

Filed Under: BSMW Original Column, Patriots

What Belichick’s History Tells Us About Wes Welker’s Situation

September 17, 2012 By

The Patriots lost their home opener for the first time since 2001 with a 20-18 loss to the Arizona Cardinals. It was perhaps the most unexpected loss in recent memory for the Patriots.

The actual game however, will likely be overshadowed this week by scrutiny over the usage of franchise wide receiver Wes Welker.

Welker did not start the game (though he was announced as a starter) and only entered the game after Aaron Hernandez suffered an ankle sprain that will likely keep him out until November.

Whether it is Tom Curran and Ron Borges arguing over the use or Welker, or sports radio hosts and callers and Twitter NFL experts angrily questioning whether Bill Belichick knows what’s best for his team.

Greg A. Bedard tries to cover all possibilities – Role of Patriots’ Welker further in doubt

Karen Guregian asks if we’re nuts to wonder what is going on here – Again, Wes isn’t more

Tom E. Curran says even Welker seems mystified at what’s happening – Welker was a backup plan vs. Cardinals

While it’s natural to look in from the outside and wonder what is happening here, looking back through the Bill Belichick era, three situations come to mind that may shed light on what is going on here.

In so many ways this is reminiscent of the Lawyer Milloy situation nine years ago. The reaction outside of Gillette is almost the same as well. Even though Welker has not been cut or traded, check out these Boston.com “Ask Nick” columns from September 5th 2003 and September 12, 2003.

Does that reaction sound similar to what is happening right now? With Milloy, there were a couple of things that led to his release – his contract and his play. Belichick felt that Milloy wasn’t the player he had been even two years before, and wasn’t worth the contract that he was playing under. They tried to get him to take less to be more in line with what they thought he was worth, and it was certainly in Milloy’s right to refuse a paycut.

Milloy refused, and he was cut the week before the season began. The Patriots had signed Rodney Harrison in the offseason and felt that he would replace Milloy’s production at a more reasonable price. Read the hysterical reaction in those “Ask Nick” columns and then look back at how things turned out.

Belichick and the Patriots saw something that needed to be changed and made that change, unpopular as it was. Nine years later, people are still acting like Belichick is a simpleton who has no idea what he’s doing when it comes to his football team. The Patriots made a similar call to the Milloy one when they traded Richard Seymour to Oakland the week prior to the 2009 season. It was again a production/value call for them, knowing they likely would not be able to sign Seymour after the season. Instead of letting it play out and getting nothing, they got a first round pick.

It’s a fact that Welker has been historically productive during his time here. It’s also a fact that he’s been underpaid during that tenure. He’s been good value for the Patriots. He’s also 31 and has taken a lot of pounding over the last five-plus seasons. He’s getting the biggest payday of his career this season. He could make more next year. The Patriots need to decide whether his production is going to continue and whether the value is there, or whether they can get similar production at a better value. That sounds cold, but its reality. It makes zero sense to give him big money for extended years because “he’s earned it.” You don’t do business that way. Milloy was beloved around here. Welker is probably even more beloved. But the Patriots are going to do what is best for the team. They’re unlikely to cut Welker right now, since his contact is guaranteed for the season, but they need to see whether it is worth extending his tenure here.

Let’s now go back two years for the second situation. The duo of Welker and Randy Moss had been as productive as any combination in football. But even in 2009, as documented in the Bill Belichick – A Football Life episode Belichick knew that the offense was flawed, and that they were entirely too reliant on those two players. He was proved correct. That team was perhaps the weakest of the post 2001 era, and I include the 2002 team in that. I don’t think even Richard Seymour would’ve made a huge difference for them. They got smoked in the wild card game by the Ravens, and in that offseason, changes began with the drafting of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.

The 2010 season began and Randy Moss, a smart player, could see what was going on. The offense was changing. His own contract was up at the end of the season, so he went about making noise about it. There was an alleged shouting incident on  a plane ride home from Miami, following a game in which Moss was targeted just once and did not catch a pass. Moss was traded to Minnesota shortly thereafter. Deion Branch was brought back, a player who had the confidence of Brady and who would assist in the transition by offering a familiar target while the offense transitioned to an increased focus on the short game and multiple tight end sets.

The offense took off after that point, and even though the season ended with another disappointing one-and-done in the playoffs, the offensive transition was moving forward. Last season it continued, with a record season from Gronkowski and sensational seasons from Hernandez and Welker. But still, the season ended in disappointment when the New York Giants again exploited the weaknesses in the schemes. For most defenses the Patriots offense was more than they could handle, but for certain squads with the ability to get to the quarterback, the offense still could be disrupted. More tweaking was needed. A healthy Gronkowski would’ve helped in the Super Bowl, but the Giants still pretty much did what they wanted in that game.

Exit Bill O’Brien, (re)enter Josh McDaniels. While the offensive philosophies would essentially stay consistent, the role that Welker plays is clearly under examination here. They seem to feel that the offense has been too reliant on Welker and they want to do some other things here. (Game one in Tennessee seemed to indicate they wanted to run the ball more, but yesterday seemed to set that back a bit.) The offense is transitioning again, and like Moss in 2010, Welker has seen a decreased role in the early going. The injury to Hernandez yesterday seemed to have thrown a wrench in the plans for the offense, putting Welker back into a bigger role than they originally had planned.

It might well be that the Patriots want to save wear on Welker for the long season, or there is the third example from the Belichick era that is worth looking back on and seeing  if it applies here. Bedard and Curran have both said Edelman had a better camp than Welker. Outsiders would have a hard time believing that Edelman could out-play Welker.

In the summer of 2001, Drew Bledsoe was firmly entrenched as the Patriots franchise quarterback. He had even signed a huge contract reflecting that. Nothing seemed more certain than that Bledsoe would be the quarterback of this team. But quietly that summer, the guy who had started the previous season as the fourth-string quarterback impressed the coaches with his preparation, work ethic and improvement. By the time the preseason ended, Tom Brady was the clear number two QB, and according to some, there was talk that Brady could already start over Bledsoe. The Patriots were lackluster in their first two games under Bledsoe, and a hit late in the second game which sidelined Bledsoe opened the door for Brady, who never gave up the job.

In the video above where Curran and Borges argue, Borges laughs at and ridicules the notion that anything can be learned by watching training camp and preseason. He states that he prefers to watch real games to make his judgements. Of course Borges was leading the pack early on in saying that Brady couldn’t play and that Bledsoe should get his job back. Could it be that the coaches are simply going with the player that they feel give them a better chance to win at this time, no matter what perception outside of their circle is?

When the team makes these kinds of tough decisions, the early results are not always pretty, which just amps up the criticism. In Brady’s second start, against the Dolphins, he looked dreadful, and the team sat at 1-3. He threw four picks in Denver to drop the team to 3-4, before they caught fire, losing just one more game the rest of the season. After Milloy’s release, the Patriots lost to Buffalo and their newly signed safety, Lawyer Milloy 31-0. Drew Bledsoe quarterbacked that Bills team which added even more fuel to the fire.  After the Seymour trade, the 2009 Patriots struggled most of the season.

But on the balance, the Patriots make decisions for what is going to be best for the long term stability and success of the franchise. Most of their decisions have worked out. (You can debate the Seymour one, but I’d say he was gone anyway, and that team wasn’t winning the Super Bowl that season even with Seymour.) I’d say overall the track record is pretty good here.

Tell me who has been better over the last decade. Does it mean they’re immune from criticism? Of course not.

But trust me, the people inside that building generally know more than you or the media do. Whatever the reason that Wes Welker’s workload has changed in the early part of this season, they have a damn good reason for it. They’re just not going to tell you. Nor should they.

In mind, it comes down to one of two things:

Either the Patriots offense is changing to be less reliant on what Welker brings to it (either for strategic reasons or in anticipation of losing him), or, the Patriots feel that Julian Edelman is more deserving to be on the field at this time.

Filed Under: Morning Links, Patriots

New England 2-2? First Quarter 2012 Predictions

September 5, 2012 By

Soo, ready for the season yet, or do you want another preseason game?

Nope? All set? Good.

Speaking of which, before we get into our predictions of the first four contests of the season, a quick review of our Preseason Predictions column posted at the beginning of August.

Preseason Predictions (Proper): Pretty short list. Two preseason wins or less (at 1-3, the Pats fell in line). Also, we guessed that, while Stevan Ridley would produce the most, Brandon Bolden could secure a roster spot with solid play. Donald Thomas would start at guard, while Ryan Mallett “(would) get plenty of opportunities to play.”

Preseason Predictions (Poor): We had Bolden scoring the most TDs (zero won’t do it), Aaron Hernandez getting the most receptions, and Jabar Gaffney with the most reception yardage (even without his injury, that probably wasn’t going to happen).

Ah, well. Why let a few mistakes get in the way? Let’s be pundits!

At TENNESSEE (Sun, 9/9, 1 p.m.) – NE 23, TEN 20.

Titans quarterback Jack Locker comes into this game with three advantages: home crowd, strong scrambling skills, and opponent ignorance. On that last point, New England has so little film on Locker they may as well be scouting Nessie. With a strong running game, we can see Locker doing just enough – even without Kenny “Officer, I Haven’t Had Anydrink To Thing Tonight” Britt at receiver – to give the Pats’ defense a challenge.

Meanwhile, the visiting offense takes a while to round into form, as the starting line this off-season have seen each other about as often as Giselle and the inside of a Wal-Mart. We predict a win, but a close one.

Vs. ARIZONA (Sun, 9/16, 1 p.m.) – NE 31, ARI 13.

Your starting quarterback for Arizona: John “Who, me?” Skelton, who beat out Kevin “Ka-ching!” Kolb and Ryan Lindley. Seriously, this three-headed QB is kind of like Cerberus, if Cerberus were a mini Chihuahua.

Offensively, the home opener should see the Patriots pull an Earth, Wind, and Fire and really get into a groove.

At BALTIMORE (Sun, 9/23, 8:20 p.m.) – BAL 27, NE 23

If you’re from Baltimore – sorry: If youse’re from Balmer, you want this game. The Ravens came within one dropped pass of victory and one missed field goal of overtime in last year’s AFC Champsionship at Foxboro. Linebacker Ray Lewis would actually rip off someone’s head and shout at it to ensure a win – and that would be his own teammate. With New England starting more slowly than Don Criqui matching a uniform number with a player while Baltimore gets inspired by the past more than Ron Borges’ barber, it should become a tough slog down in Charm City for the Pats.

But man, wouldn’t it be great if the Pats won on a questionable call by a replacement official? Even watching from his couch, Terrell Suggs would get so upset he’d pass out after forgetting to breathe out of his mouth.

At BUFFALO (Sun, 9/30, 1 p.m.) – BUF 21, NE 20

After a 2-0 start, the Patriots move back to .500 with a lame effort against Buffalo. Too many weapons on defense and a good-enough game from Ryan “Oh, I Went To School Near Boston – In Cambridge, As A Matter Of Fact” Fitzpatrick keep the visiting offense on their toes and the defense on their heels. Mario “I’m Not Injured Yet” Williams will make a difference, throwing Tom Brady off-rhythm and allowing the Bills to drop about 40 players into coverage.

The home fans feel very happy, until they leave the stadium and realize they live in Buffalo.

Predicted record after four games: 2-2

Predicted season record: 11-5

You can email Chris Warner a polite and cheery note at [email protected]

 

Filed Under: BSMW Original Column, Patriots

A Far-Too-Early Patriots Roster Preview Review

September 4, 2012 By

Way, waay back this spring, right after rookie mini-camp, we tried a Pats roster preview. Now, for your reading pleasure, we have taken the time to review our predictions.

(Keep in mind, people: this was on May 14. That’s a long time ago, like before “the Red Sox” served as a punchline for “What has 18 legs, no head, and refuses to live up to expectations?”)

Below lies a look back and how it compares to the primary cutdown. Names of those who made the initial roster on Friday are in bold, with updates from weekend transactions.

QUARTERBACK: Tom Brady, Ryan Mallett, Brian Hoyer.

Missed Picks: Hoyer cut.

Ship A Hoyer: You like that? How about this one: “I guess the Patriots front office acted with Mallett A Forethought.” BOOM.

Seriously, though, a big surprise, albeit a pleasant one regarding Mallett’s surge.

RUNNING BACK: Danny Woodhead, Shane Vereen, Stevan Ridley, Brandon Bolden.

Missed Picks: None, now that Jeff Demps has been safely tucked away on injured reserve.

Bolden The Beautiful: We actually made the right call on Joseph Addai, whose veteran presence didn’t seem to make up for the affects of age. (I’m in my 40s, so that hurts.) Happy with the addition of Bolden, who could contribute in many ways. Looking at Bolden and BenJarvus Green-Ellis, from now on shouldn’t every Ole Miss running back get drafted?

FULLBACK: Spencer Larsen, Eric Kettani.

Missed Picks: Larsen, Kettani both cut.

No Thanks, We’re Full: While it seems that our desire to bring back the fullback has been dashed, it’s possible that Bolden could take some reps at the position (as well as a tight end, an offensive lineman, or groundskeeper. Anyone who’s around, really). Larsen’s injury hurt (literally, we assume), giving him little chance to show what he could do. We left Tony Fiametta off the team, though we couldn’t have predicted his Agatha-Christie-level mystery departure from Foxboro.

Update: New England signed Kettani to the practice squad.

TIGHT END: Aaron Hernandez, Rob Gronkowski

Missed Picks: Daniel Fells, Visanthe Shiancoe kept.

Say Please And Shiancoe: We picked Larsen over Fells (Shiancoe had not yet been signed). Surprised at keeping four TEs and the apparent impact on our next position…

WIDE RECEIVER: Brandon Lloyd, Julian Edelman, Matthew Slater, Deion Branch, Jabar Gaffney, Jeremy Ebert.

Missed Picks: Wes Welker kept; Branch, Gaffney, Ebert cut.

Getting More Out Of Wes: I had Welker sitting out for the first few weeks trying to hammer out a contract (remember that?). Sometimes it’s good to be wrong. Gaffney’s injury kept him off the field, but even before then he seemed to falter. Branch’s cut came as a big surprise to me, especially after his preseason production.

We knew a bunch of vets had to go, like Anthony Gonzalez, Donte Stallworth and Chad Lastname. But Gaffney and Branch? Looks like Brady’s going to make more short passes than Casanova at a little person convention.

Update: The Patriots traded for Rams receiver Greg Salas over the weekend. On the positive side, they add depth with someone familiar with Josh McDaniels’ offense. On the negative side, Salas is a Welker type. Or an Edelman type. Whatever he’s adding, it’s nothing new.

OFFENSIVE LINE: Dan Connolly, Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer, Marcus Cannon, Nick McDonald, Dan Koppen, Matt Kopa, Kyle Hix.

Missed Picks: Donald Thomas, Ryan Wendell, Logan Mankins kept; Koppen, Kopa, Hix all cut.

Working On Our Koppen Skills: Congrats, Thomas and Wendell! We underestimated you, and apparently overestimated the veteran leadership of Koppen. We had a good feeling about McDonald due to his versatility. Also thought Mankins would start season on PUP list due to knee injury. Mankins so tough that off-season surgery consisted of sewing up knee with fishing line while shooting at skeet to keep mind off pain.

Update: New England signed former Boston College offensive lineman Matt Tenant over the weekend. Apparently, the Pats must always have at least one OL from BC. Also, Kopa made the practice squad.

DEFENSIVE LINE: Brandon Deaderick, Vince Wilfork, Kyle Love, Chandler Jones, Trevor Scott, Marcus Forston, Myron Pryor, Jonathan Fanene, Gerard Warren.

Missed Picks: Jermaine Cunningham, Ron Brace, Justin Francis kept; Fanene, Warren cut; Pryor (PUP list).

Keeping Jermaine: Very happy being wrong regarding the progress of Cunningham and Brace; we gave up on the 2010 picks, but they didn’t give up on themselves (that’s the potential tagline for the upcoming ESPN doc and/or Lifetime movie). Francis’ consistency helped him stick. Had a good feeling about Forston. Sorry to see Warren go, but understandable. The word “Fanene” roughly translates into “oops.”

LINEBACKER: Jerod Mayo, Rob Ninkovich, Brandon Spikes, Dont’a Hightower, Jake Bequette, Tracy White, Jeff Tarpinian, Dane Fletcher.

Missed Picks: Bobby Carpenter*, Mike Rivera kept; Tarpinian cut; Fletcher to IR.

Take Me To The Rivera: Rivera may be one of the few Patriots to benefit from late preseason production, as he was all over the field against the Giants (Fletcher’s injury opened a door for him as well). Tarpinian failed to step up, apparently, while Carpenter had a firm grasp of this defense from day one.

Did you know that sperm whales were called carpenter whales because they make a noise that sounds like hammering? It’s true. While humpback songs sound New Age, sperm whale chatter sounds like a house renovation. (Sorry. Just went to a whaling museum.  I’m full of more Blubber-based trivia than a Judy Blume fan club.)

*Update: New England cut Carpenter over the weekend, making the above paragraph an even greater non sequitur. Also, Tarpinian made the practice squad.

CORNERBACK: Kyle Arrington, Devin McCourty, Ras-I Dowling, Alfonso Dennard.

Missed Picks: Marquice Cole, Sterling Moore kept.

Stocking With Cole: Surprised at six corners sticking around, but Cole’s preseason performance got him a longer look. Moore, while inconsistent, continued to flash at the position.

SAFETY: Patrick Chung, Steve Gregory, Tavon Wilson, Josh Barrett.

Missed Picks: Nate Ebner kept; Barrett cut.

In-Nate Ability: How ’bout this Ebner kid? Watching highlights of him playing for Ohio State’s 7 rugby team, we dared hope for a long-term transition to safety. Very impressive work from a college special teams guy in his rookie preseason.

SPECIAL TEAMS: Stephen Gostkowski, kicker; Zoltan Mesko, punter; Danny Aiken, longsnapper.

Missed Picks: None. I mean, come on.

Aiken To Belong: Aiken has shown some inconsistency (read: don’t be too surprised at a change in the position).

If you’d like to praise Chris Warner for his astounding writing skill, please drop him a line at [email protected]

Filed Under: BSMW Original Column, Patriots

Patriots Preseason Predictions

August 8, 2012 By

by Chris Warner

Despite the fact that a team’s preseason performance has little relation to how the regular season will go, New England’s competition over the next few weeks will mean a great deal to fans.

For one, it’s the closest thing we’ve had to actual football in over six months. We can also begin to answer questions: Has the offense gotten its deep threat in Brandon Lloyd? Has the defense-minded draft made that side of the ball less charitable? We shall see, eventually.

In the meantime, we’ve compiled some predictions based on preseason reports, gut instincts, and a lack of interest in whatever Olympic event happened to be on television as we wrote this.

Keep reading this post

Filed Under: BSMW Original Column, Patriots

Twelve Points For Patriots Training Camp

July 24, 2012 By

by Chris Warner

Off-season, off-season, free agents, rookies, whatchathink, whaddyaknow, blah, blah, blah.

Enough. Let’s do this …

Jones-ing For Athleticism: Before we speak of rookie Chandler Jones, a quick anecdote about last year’s defense, focusing on fan (and BSMW) favorite Rob Ninkovich. Playing against an AFC East rival, Ninkovich made two plays that defined the 2011 season defensively. On one play, he read a misdirection play, avoided the block, and ran toward the outside. Due to his lack of quickness, however, the back eluded contain and gained a first down.

Keep reading this post

Filed Under: BSMW Original Column, Patriots

Ochocinco Era Done, But Not Without Confusion

June 7, 2012 By


The Ochocinco Drama

A crazy day on Twitter from Patriots OTA’s.

Storified by · Thu, Jun 07 2012 16:04:18

If you missed it, Chad Ochocinco was not at Patriots OTA practice today.
No Hernandez and Ocho at practice. TE Brad Herman carted off w/ left ankle/foot injury in warmupsMike Rodak
The story was advanced slightly when it was reported that the receiver was at Gillette, but not practicing.
Source: Ocho was at Gillette facility today but not part of OTA session.Christopher Price
This tweet from the Patriots Football Weekly team is admittedly odd. Content from @patriotsdotcom is definitely not the same as tweets from @Patriots. But someone might get the impression that a tweet coming from the website of the Patriots might be hinting at something or know something that other reporters haven’t learned yet. This comes into play later.
Do you think that Chad Ochocinco will still be a member of the #Patriots at the end of the day? #PFW | http://bit.ly/j7tfOtPatriots.com
Some more information started to leak out:
was told recently that physically Ocho still has it – but still struggling to grasp Pats playbookshalise manza young
Source: Ocho leaves Gillette b4 Thursday’s OTA session, alters Twitter bio to remove Pats’ info #weei #NFL #Patriots http://bit.ly/KeWQ76Christopher Price
Source tells colleague Karen Guregian that Chad Ochocinco arrived at Gillette Stadium today and left 10-15 minutes later.Jeff Howe
FWIW, Ocho’s Twitter bio now has him as WR of the New England Patriots once again.Christopher Price
Source: Chad Ochocinco "is on the Patriots" http://bit.ly/KeZ1YfJeff Howe
I saw all this hubbub over @ochocinco taking "Patriots" off his Twitter bio … So I went to his Twitter page, and "Patriots" was back up.Albert Breer
So Ocho is officially still with the team?
However, I don’t think this @ochocinco story is over yet. Stay tuned.Greg A. Bedard
ProFootballTalk feels that this situation is worthy of a post, and in their original ports (since edited) they actually said that “multiple account” said that Ochocinco had been cut.
Chad Ochocinco hasn’t been cut by the Patriots, yet http://bit.ly/KAM4YEProFootballTalk
This led to questioning:
@ProFootballTalk Which accounts reported that he was cut? There weren’t any.Andy Hart
Andy Hart, of course, works for Patriots.com.
@ProFootballTalk Never saw a single account that said Ocho had been cut. Where are those?Christopher Price
@capeleaguer . . . http://Patriots.com openly speculating about it based on his absence from practice.ProFootballTalk
@AO250 I think Ocho has an uphill battle here. And there might be more to this 1. But the Twitter detectives need to calm down a little.Albert Breer
@ProFootballTalk @capeleaguer No actually we were wondering why he wasn’t at practice. Never said he was cut. Terry Bradshaw still dead?Andy Hart
Hart clarifies what the original Patriots.com tweet meant. However, I think there’s a difference between asking “How come Ochocinco wasn’t at practice?” and “Do you think Ochocinco will still be a member of the Patriots at the end of the day?” Don’t you? Especially when the question is being asked by the official website and newspaper of the Patriots?
Adam Schefter provides another explanation.
Chad Ochocinco left Patriots complex before today’s OTA…to attend an eye doctor appointment. Contrary to speculation, he was not released.Adam Schefter
Hart is still steamed at PFT.
Haven’t heard back from Florio in regard to his irresponsible report. Not surprised. MT @sleyland: @ProFootballTalk Awful reporting on Ocho.Andy Hart
Then Schefter, cleans up and scoops everyone. As usual.
After unsuccessfully trying to trade WR Chad Ochocinco throughout the day Thursday, the Patriots are releasing him, per league source.Adam Schefter
Can confirm that the Patriots are releasing Chad Ochocinco …Albert Breer
… But I stick by what I said about the Twitter Detectives.Albert Breer
So in the end, you have to wonder even more about the original Patriots.com tweet. Did they know that the team was trying to trade Ochocinco? Is that why they asked if he would still be on the team at the end of the day?

And did Bedard know something? This seemed like one of those “where there’s smoke, there’s fire” situations.

Filed Under: Patriots

A Far-Too-Early Patriots Roster Preview (Bias Included)

May 17, 2012 By

Now that New England’s rookie mini-camp has wrapped up, it’s high time we put together the roster for 2012.

(Is it really high time? No, not at all. But with all these players in Foxboro, the temptation proved too much.)

Keep reading this post

Filed Under: BSMW Original Column, Patriots

Examining How Bill Belchick and Doc Rivers Talk With The Media About Injuries

May 16, 2012 By

They are both among the longest-tenured head coaches in their respective leagues. They have both won conference and league championships. They both seemingly manage to get more out of their teams than the roster talent would indicate.

But when it comes to dealing with the media, Bill Belichick and Doc Rivers could not be more different.

Or are they more alike than a surface examination would show?

Doc Rivers was recently named the recipient of the Rudy Tomjanovich Award – a honor given from the Professional Basketball Writers Association to the head coach considered the most accessible to the media.

Bill Belichick is never in danger of being awarded the Horrigan Award from the Professional Football Writers of America, which goes “to the person whose qualities and professional style helped the media best do its job last season.” Guess who won last year? (Professional style? Ha.)

(As an aside, how ridiculous is it that these awards exist in the first place? It seems a little self-important for the media to be honoring people who make their jobs the easiest.)

While their approaches with the media are certainly different, you can’t argue with the results.

Belichick does not give away information on the day-to-day operation of his team, whether it be about injuries, the opponent, or what color jerseys his team is wearing that Sunday. He will almost never criticize a specific player publicly, instead putting the blame on the entire team, including the coaches and himself. Belichick will, from time to time, speak at length about the history of a certain strategy, or about players of the past, or will acknowledge something in the personal life of a media member (as he did by noting Monique Walker’s last day on the beat this season.) His press conferences, especially after a game, can be painful. He doesn’t elaborate on anything, does not want to speak about certain plays or performances until he has a chance to review the film. His weekly radio spots with WEEI are a little more open and cordial, though he still does not give away much.

Rivers talks openly about injuries. (sort of, more on that in a bit.) He’ll be critical of his players publicly. His press conferences are informative, engaging and smooth. His weekly spots on WEEI are appointment radio.

Both are successful, showing that there is more than one way to do things.

Let’s get back to injuries. The Patriots policies on information about injuries can be infuriating when, as a fan, you want to know how hurt a player is, and what the impact, long and short-term is going to be. But after a few days, it becomes “out of sight, out of mind.” The injured players are “day-to-day,” with no timetable set on a return.  The focus is turned onto the players who are playing. In addition to keeping fans and media guessing, it also keeps opponents in the dark, which is the real reason for the policy. Injuries never become an all-consuming drama.

If I have a frustration with the Celtics, and Doc Rivers (and Danny Ainge) it is how they deal with injuries. They talk about them, but in reality, they’re not giving you much more than the Patriots do. The release last week about Paul Pierce’s MCL was a bit of a surprise, it was also obvious that Pierce had a knee injury. (Well, except to foil-hat Felger.) In general, the Celtics will give almost daily updates on injuries without giving you any information.

Let me give two examples: Kevin Garnett in the 2009 playoffs, and Shaquille O’Neal last season. In both cases, you got daily updates which told you absolutely nothing. With KG, every day there was talk about being day-to-day or getting “close” or wanting to play. First there was talk about whether he would be ready for the playoffs, which Ainge and Rivers said he would be. Then as each game went by, KG was said to be “close.

He never stepped on the court for the Celtics in the 2009 playoffs.

Last season, it was Shaq. Following the trade of Kendrick Perkins, Danny Ainge repeated said that the trade was made in part because they expected Shaq (and to a lesser extent, Jermaine O’Neal) to fill the center spot. We got daily and weekly updates on Shaq, and how close he was to returning. Rivers talked about it, but Shaq never really came back, making just a token appearance in the playoffs (2 games, 2 points total) and obviously never being a factor.

If you think about it,  in the end, the practices of Doc Rivers and Bill Belichick when it comes to information about injuries, really have the same endgame. They tell you nothing. They do it to keep people guessing.

Celtics ownership infamously joked/bragged that they were being Belichickian during the KG injury. They knew the severity of Garnett’s injury, but played the “day-to-day” game to keep opponents guessing. In the endgame, perhaps it was Belichick-like, but the method of getting there was about as far from Belichick as you could get.

The difference between the Rivers method and the Belichick method is that Doc Rivers is going to sit in front of reporters and talk about the situation, seemingly being helpful, yet saying nothing, while Belichick is not even going to bother playing that game. But Rivers is lauded and awarded for being “helpful” to the media, while Belichick is mocked, and reporters gripe about not getting any information from him.

I actually prefer the Belichick way of doing things. The KG and Shaq sagas were painful. Every day it seemed like the player was very close to coming back, yet it didn’t happen. Hopes were raised, the frustrations grew as the weeks went by. Had it been Belichick handling it, it wouldn’t have been the same huge topic. Focus would be on the players who were actually playing. If the injured players came back, it would be a pleasant surprise and a bonus, perhaps even a lift to the team.

While Doc Rivers is definitely more media friendly and is certainly always accessible, part of him is more like Bill Belichick than it would seem. Let’s keep this mind next time you hear Rivers praised for his accessibility and willingness to talk about injuries, and the next time a reporter dumps on Belichick for refusing to talk about injuries.

Filed Under: Celtics, Noteworthy, Patriots
«Older Posts
Newer Posts»